US experts see Pyongyang's Russia gambit as no-win situation for China

 

FILE – A TV screen shows file images of North Korean soldiers during a news program at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Oct. 18, 2024.

China\’s response to Russia\’s growing influence over North Korea and its leader, Kim Jong Un, likely combines "exasperation" and "panic" as Beijing appears to be losing control over its client state, according to former U.S. policy and intelligence officials.

They noted that the explicit security partnership between China\’s two neighbors —Russia and North Korea — could undermine China\’s strategic position in East Asia and has long-term implications that are not beneficial for China.

On Wednesday, Russia\’s Foreign Ministry announced that North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will hold "strategic consultations" in Moscow with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, as the United States, South Korea, and NATO express alarm that Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to train in Russia.

U.S. officials believe Russia intends to use North Korean soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. South Korea has condemned that as a significant security threat to the international community.

In Beijing, China\’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, and Russian deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko held talks Wednesday, with Wang reaffirming the strong ties between the two nations. The officials exchanged views on Ukraine but did not disclose details of their discussion.

But Chinese officials have avoided direct comments on North Korea dispatching thousands of troops to Russia.

"China calls for all parties to deescalate the situation and strive for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. This position remains unchanged," Lin Jian, a spokesperson from China\’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, repeated Beijing\’s stance during a briefing on Tuesday.

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China\’s panic

"The radio silence in Beijing on this subject is staggering," said Dennis Wilder, a former senior intelligence official with the CIA.

Wilder said Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to say anything publicly as he faces an unpredictable Kim Jong Un.

"The Chinese have been very careful about nuclear assistance to the North Koreans, keeping them on IV drip of economic support so North Korea remains stable. But if [Russian President Vladimir] Putin goes down the road of nuclear assistance, this will bolster the American alliances in East Asia, maybe creating a true NATO."

"And so [Chinese President Xi Jinping is] in a very, very difficult spot," said Wilder during a seminar hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, on Tuesday.

Wilder suggested that the U.S. could leverage its intelligence channels with China for joint data collection and analysis.

Former White House national security council senior official Victor Cha said that by sending troops, North Korea is making a "downpayment" to Russia on a mutual security partnership — something Pyongyang could never secure from Beijing.

In China, he said, "There\’s probably a combination of a little bit of exasperation, a little bit of panic and a little bit of they don\’t know what to do with regard to the current situation.

"The panic is that Russia now has arguably much more influence over North Korea than China does," added Cha, who is currently president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at CSIS.

Both Wilder and Cha served on former U.S. president George W. Bush\’s National Security Council.

Language barrier

Other military analysts noted that while North Korean soldiers could gain real-world experience in combat operations simply by deploying to another country, they would also encounter significant challenges.

"You also have an immense language problem," said Colonel Mark Cancian, who spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps and is now a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program.

He questioned how a group of North Koreans could effectively integrate with a Russian military unit and communicate and operate together.

The possibility of Russia transferring technology related to ballistic missiles, air defenses and nuclear weapons to North Korea is "probably the most dangerous" scenario from the U.S. point of view, according to Cancian.

Violation of UNSC resolutions

On Tuesday, U.S. officials disputed Russian foreign minister Lavrov\’s assertion that military assistance between Russia and North Korea does not violate international law.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Tuesday that "Russia\’s training of DPRK soldiers involving arms or related material," as well as "any training or assistance involving DPRK soldiers in the use of ballistic missiles or other arms," constitutes a direct violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions. He was referring to the Democratic People\’s Republic of Korea, North Korea\’s official name.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced plans to exchange delegations to coordinate actions and share intelligence regarding North Korean troop deployments to Russia.

This week, Kyiv\’s special envoy to South Korea will begin talks with South Korean officials.

In Washington, U.S. officials said they would welcome increased South Korean support for Ukraine. The South Korean government indicated that it would consider sending "weapons for defense and attack" and may also dispatch military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine to analyze North Korean battlefield tactics and assist in interrogations of captured North Koreans.

"We, of course, welcome any country supporting our Ukrainian partners as they continue to defend their territorial integrity and sovereignty," State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told VOA during a recent briefing.

 

By：VOA